Last week there was
another big technology fair, with various companies displaying their
latest advances. And before, of course, there was Apple, with the new
iPhone 5.
So what was delivered?
Well, with the iPhone,
you got essentially a very similar phone to the iPhone 4GS: the
operating systems are the same, the hardware actually very similar.
Yes, it was longer and thinner and slightly faster; but that was
pretty much all.
The big news at the
tech fair? That'll be the firm that showed off its latest 86”
television screen. How was this a massive development? Well, it was 2” bigger
than their previous screen.
Now, I know that there
are sometimes huge leaps forward: HDTV, 3D, 4G etc. - in fact
anything with an acronym or abbreviation. Brand new technologies that
allow us to do so much more. The phone in my pocket lets me take a
photo and share it via the internet with millions of people, within
seconds and with just the swipe of a touchscreen. Well, ok, a couple
of hundred of people. But it's not that long ago when the idea of
sharing photos so widely - other than passing them around a group at
a party - was unheard of.
But then the phone in
my pocket actually isn't that much different to the previous one. I
have a Samsung Galaxy Note; and previously had a Dell Streak. They
are both the same size; both had a similar camera; both had the same
operating system on them and the same availability of apps. In fact,
the reason I bought my new phone wasn't to 'upgrade' - to get some
technology or function that I didn't have - it was because my other
phone had broken.
And when you look at
people who do 'upgrade', it isn't usually the 'draw' of any new
functionality; but simply the availability. People bought HDTVs
because they were buying a new tv anyway, and 'might as well' have
HD. There were of course the first few evangelists who bought simply
for the new; but they aren't really the drivers behind the technology
and are probably 1% of the target market (albeit being 100% of the
initial market).
The tech guys create
the new technology either because they can (or to see if they can);
or because they must. The ridiculously big tvs for example are
created purely to show that it is possible to do it; whereas other
technologies, like SuperHD are created because there is a need: if
you are buying an 86” tv, then 1080HD is simply not good enough, a
crisp enough resolution at that size where your pixel will be a
massive 2mm tall. Then, once the technology becomes cheap enough, it
becomes included as standard - almost a forced migration. One of my
colleagues regularly bemoans the lack of absolutely basic mobile
phones available these days.
And you have to wonder
how necessary - or even beneficial - the progress is. Take cash
machines. Is there any need for them to have colour screens? Aside
from the pretty pictures advertising their low-rate loans, no - you
need the screen to tell you what your balance is, and ask you how
much of that dwindling resource you would like to withdraw from your
86” SuperHD tv fund. The reason they have them is because it has
now become cheaper to manufacture colour screens, otherwise you need
to have and maintain a separate plant for your old monochrome
screens.
I saw a car the other
day advertised as having a colour touchscreen display. I'm not sure
why. I presume it includes an in-built satellite navigation system,
but otherwise, why? Is the colour touchscreen going to make me a
better driver? Also certainly it would, in fact, distract you from
being a better driver. I have seen irons advertised as having LCDs
for no apparent reason. I'm sure someone sits in the R&D
departments of white goods departments trying to think of things to
slap on their fridge, and when someone asks why anyone would want
that, they simply reply “why not!”
Indeed as a moot
consideration the BBC Click programme recently considered why you
would want an IP connected washing machine - one of the reasons
behind IPv6 was that we were going to have so many more 'connected
appliances'. The most dominant reason was so that the washing machine
could send a message to your smartphone telling you that your washing
was done. There was, however, one genius idea - that it would only
turn on if the weather was going to be fine for the amount of time it
would take to dry it.
Within tech circles the
running joke is the IP connected fridge that automatically orders
milk for you when you run low (it's not very funny, but they don't
have many jokes). Lovely. But what are the practicalities of this?
Would you have to scan the barcode when you use any so it knew it
was milk? And then give it an estimate of how much you use? Or would
you have to put it in the same place in the fridge every time so that
it could weigh it? What about if you bought something new or wanted
to try something different? Perhaps you don't ever try any new food?
And what about delivery? Do you have to maintain your Google calendar
so very tightly so that it can automatically book a delivery slot in
for you? Thereby stifling your spontaneity? After all, spontaneity,
experimentation and entrepreneurship are the key drivers behind
technological invention and development. If the new technology ends
up being less convenient it just doesn't take off.
And there is
suitability. Take 3D tv. Not only was timing poor for this – within
a few years of the mass consumer base having just upgraded to digital
HDTV and therefore unwilling to make a purchase for a while – but
it has a number of problems with suitability and practicality.
It is perfect for the
all-immersive movie experience; but that is less than 1% of what tvs
are made for, and an aspect in which people are willing to
compromise: if they want the full experience they go to the cinema.
TV is frequently dip-in
dip-out. Getting your eyes used to a 3D screen is not compatible with
that. Indeed in Japan a number of authorities are concerned about the
effect and strain 3D tvs place upon peoples eyes. And you can't
dip-in, dip-out when it involves putting glasses on and taking them
off again: it is just plain inconvenient. And even when you are fully
committed to a movie, the glasses are a discomfort. Yes, they are now
making tvs which don't require glasses, but the 'sweet-spot' in which
to sit to achieve 3D is limited and very much not suited to popping
your head round the doorframe to catch the headlines inbetween
cooking.
But that shows the
development progress. It started out offering a feature – 3D –
and then they worked to refine that feature, making it as comfortable
as possible and removing the need for glasses. Without the initial
development of what might have seemed like a gimmick, the ultimate
aim would not have been achieved: without the novelty of a super thin
screen, your mobile would not be in the same state as it is. And the
need to make these novelties, gimmicks consumable is what drives
future development; as soon as you can make HDTV a necessity - for
the mainstream, as the basic starting point - then you can reap the
rewards of developing that technology and investing it into the next
big thing.
Of course the tiny,
drip-feed, incremental developments are necessary. Yes, HD was a
massive step-up for television, and it did convince people to spend
more when an otherwise necessary upgrade was required, but it would
only have been possible with the steps in between. Yes, the processor
in the new iPhone may be only slightly faster, slightly more powerful
than the last one; but it is considerably faster than in the first
phone. Were it not for this snail-pace progression then my memory
card would have been sitting around at the same size - both
physically and digitally - as my old 16MB compact flash card, waiting
for the next earthquake-sized radical development. There wouldn't
have been the step smaller to SD, then to mini-SD, then to micro-SD.
The digital increases would possibly have still occurred, but that is
the law of digital; and even then they have only been required by
other developments - my camera incrementally increased from
3megapixels to 5 and now to 10 megapixels. Without that, there is no
need for a bigger memory card so that I can hold 2000 pictures
instead of 1000 - 1000 would have continued to be perfectly
sufficient.
But that brings me back
to the usefulness of the developments. Digital cameras these days are
being marketed with 20+ megapixels. How useful is that? Unless you
are zooming in stratospherically, or printing the pictures out the size of a
bedroom wall (I shall be doing that soon and I still suspect my 10mp
pictures will be perfectly adequate) then all that the extra pixels
are doing is using up data on your hard-drive. Worse still, it may
actually be hindering the consumer experience because more pixels
take longer to save, and therefore present a greater lag on refresh
times, slowing down your ability to take the next shot. Yes, that
degree of quality may be necessary for professional users, but for
the general consumer it is bamboozling.
And that, I think, is
really the point which I am trying to make. When it comes to
technology I am reasonably well educated, and can understand the
terms, the benefits and the compromises; but that isn't necessarily
the case with consumers. They see each technological development as a
concern, a further term or specification to confuse them. It makes
them very wary of technology. Human nature being what it is, people
are only too quick to come up with problems or failures, where
technology (and not - so they believe - the user) has let them down.
Unless the creep is so gentle so as to be unnoticeable, there will be
a distinct wariness from the potential user. Ironically creep helping
to prevent a shock. Unless, of course, like me, they are quite a geek
about it. It's all very well putting a colour touchscreen in the car,
but if your average driver can't use it to turn the heating on, then
it's a step backward from what they want and are used to. It's all
very well increasing the definition, but it's another number to
remember, and the consumer wonders “is this the three-letter-acronym where a
smaller number is better or the bigger? Is Panasonic's HCSD the same
as Sony's CSF?”
To that extent there
needs to be a happy medium. Just enough information for the consumer
so that they understand the development without confusion; and with
manufacturers themselves being sensible as to use or necessity of
inclusion (or extension) of a technology or the information. If it is
included as standard across the industry, consider dropping the
information - a company was recently criticised as advertsing its paint as "lead free" dispite the fact that all paints - by law - have been lead-free since the 1990s. If customers are finding themselves forced - or at least
encouraged - to adopt a technology that they don't want and can't see
a benefit of, then they are going to be reluctant adopters, and
certainly not evangelists about it. But then, I think I have probably
discussed some of this already with regard to Facebook.
1 comment:
Very informative post. Thanks for taking the time to share your view with us.
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